A bartender in Scottsdale, Arizona, is going viral on TikTok after claiming that bartenders can predict an economic recession—and that the signs are already here.
“March and April are usually our highest months here in Scottsdale—our peak,” @hellqueencocktails told viewers earlier in the week. “[Yesterday] we made it through an entire shift cutting one of our bartenders. … We’re literally all just standing around.”
She noted that it’s not just about a lack of customers but that the ones who do come aren’t tipping as well anymore. Whereas she normally pulls an average of 25%, she says she’s currently “struggling to get even 20%.”
“I don’t know what’s going on,” she concluded. “It’s about to be a roller coaster ride.”
Is the U.S. in an economic recession?
While the U.S. hasn’t officially declared a recession, several economic indicators suggest we’re on our way there. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model estimated a contraction of 2.8% for the first quarter of 2025, marking the first negative growth since the pandemic era.
Consumer confidence has also taken a hit. The Conference Board announced in March that its index has continued to decline, dropping 7.2 points to hit the lowest point in four years. Short-term expectations dipped to a 12 year low of 65.2—a potential indicator of an impending recession.
The push-and-pull over President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the related volatility of the stock market—which affects the retirement portfolios and savings of average Americans—certainly haven’t been helping.
Viewers admit they aren’t going out
Although many commenters on @hellqueencocktails’ video agreed with her assessment, some had a specific perspective they wanted to toss into the mix—food and drinks have simply gotten too expensive.
“I stopped going out when they want to charge 18-25$ for 1 cocktail,” wrote @breesygrl45.
“Okay but simple drinks in old town in the horsehoe went from $8-12 in 2017 to now $16-18,” @shadelikesade chimed in. “With $14 SHOTS. It’s price gouging.”
Customers getting frustrated with the rising price of goods and service isn’t innately contradictory to the idea that we might be headed into a recession. In fact, the two generally go hand-in-hand.
When inflation pushes prices higher and wages don’t keep up, consumers start cutting back, especially on non-essentials like dining out. And when that belt-tightening hits places like bars and restaurants first, people in the service industry are in a prime position to sound the alarm.
“28 years in the biz,” @cdlove220 commented. “Primarily in sw Florida. Worst season I’ve ever seen. Getting cut hours in. Everyone fighting for shifts and tips are half of what they used to be. Save every penny.”
The Daily Dot has reached out to @hellqueencocktails via TikTok comment.
@hellqueencocktails Bartenders can predict a recession #hellqueencocktails #bartender #bartendertiktok #serviceindustry ♬ original sound – HellQueen Cocktails
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The post ‘I’m struggling to even get 20%’: Bartender says they can predict a recession. Then she shares the common signs appeared first on The Daily Dot.